Welcome to the Plains. The ‘Cats are making their way to the state of Alabama this Saturday to try to win their hardest game of the season inside Neville Arena.
Kentucky is sitting at 17-7 on the season coming off a win at home over the Ole Miss Rebels. After an exciting start to the non-conference part of the schedule, things haven’t went as preferred over the last month. This team is currently 5-5 in their last 10 games with losses at Texas A&M, at South Carolina, versus Florida, versus Tennessee, and versus Gonzaga.
On the other hand, the 13th ranked Auburn Tigers are absolutely rolling having won 20 of their 25 games and are 9-3 in the SEC. Looking at their performances this year, they have a lot of notable wins. At Indiana (by 28), at Arkansas (by 32), versus Texas A&M (by 11), and versus South Carolina (by 40) this past Wednesday. While they have been one of the most dominant teams in the country, they have been vulnerable to lose at points with losses coming already from at App State (Dec. 3), at Alabama (Jan. 24), at Mississippi State (Jan. 27), and at Florida (Feb. 10). Three of their 5 total losses have come within the last three weeks after an impressive 17-1 start to the season. Auburn is rolling, but they aren’t unbeatable.
Kentucky is expecting to be without veteran Tre Mitchell again after only 24 minutes of action from him against Ole Miss before leaving with a shoulder injury. While Kentucky has a rising Ugonna Onyenso to step in, it hurts the post presence big time not having Mitchell available. I would like to believe we could get some value from Aaron Bradshaw and Zvonimir Ivisic with having more playing time in this matchup, but after what we’ve seen lately that’s not something I’m banking on. Big Z gives up too much on defense and Aaron Bradshaw is extremely inconsistent and too skinny. I hate that it has to be that way, but go look at the stats if you don’t agree. It is what it is.
Looking back to the other side, Auburn is 4th in the Southeastern Conference in points per game with over 83 points per contest and are on a 16-game home winning streak. They've won the last three against Kentucky at home and 5 of the last 6. Oh yeah, they are also the only SEC team this season to have not lose yet at home. I know, not very promising for the Wildcats.
The difference makers on their roster are Johni Broome (16.2 PPG) and Jaylin Williams (13.4 PPG) who both average double digits in scoring. Johni leads the team in points, rebounds, and blocks per game, so expect a big evening from him. Auburn as a team is also bringing in an average of 6 blocks a game, 7.5 steals, and 39 rebounds. They’re efficient, they’re competing at a very high level, and they are going to be extremely hard to beat whether on a neutral court or on the road. They are truly a top-fifteen team in College Basketball this season and it’s not a fluke. Now to make things even harder, you’ve got to face them on their home court. A small gym that holds just 9,100 people you already know the atmosphere is going to be through the roof. Students camping out for days, Kentucky is coming to town, and College GameDay is there for it all. There’s no sugar coating this one. Kentucky’s going to have their hands full and if they come out with a win it will sit firmly in first place on their season resume for the NCAA Tournament. If they lose, it was expected and the sky is not falling. But, with your backs against the wall in a hostile environment, Kentucky has a chance to make a statement to the league if they get out alive.
I think what Kentucky will need to target to accomplish things the way they’d like to on Saturday, it centers around 4 things.
First, Kentucky needs to put all efforts into starting off hot and not getting down from the jump. Managing that road environment is just as big as anything and if you can keep things close for as long as possible you will have a chance approaching the final stretch. Keep it close, if you end up owning the lead, you can quiet the crowd just a little bit.
Secondly, force the offense you get a third guy playing dominant basketball. Antonio Reeves and Rob Dillingham will be the basis of your point scoring, but find a way to get a third option going just as well so you aren’t playing desperation basketball. You’ll have a handful of points provided by a handful of different guys coming in and out, but getting the bulk of your points from three guys playing aggressive basketball will allow you to spread the Auburn defense out and open the lane.
Thirdly, let’s get the pace of play up. Auburn has the ability to run with Kentucky but not near as long. I know John Calipari has cut the rotation down but in a game with the stature of this one, it’s fine to pull out all cards and brutally wear-out the opponent. Make them run and get gassed while you bring in reinforcements to produce. I think Auburn would do well in a back-and-forth high-paced offensive game, but not for a full forty minutes. Their roster just isn’t as deep as Kentucky’s is and in the long haul Kentucky’s bring crowned on that one.
My last point is the consistent theme that it has been all year long — Play better defense. You don’t have to be elite because we’re aware this defense can’t get to that level, but at least be middle-of-the-road of “good”. It needs to quit feeling as if the opponent is going to score of two out of every three possessions essentially naming their total points. On one end you grind out your points and then on the opposite end you allow your opponent to look you in the eyes and score at ease. It just doesn’t make any sense and is a recipe for failure. If you can find a way to take away 5 scores from Auburn, which isn’t asking for a lot, you can give yourself a 10-point swing to help cushion the final result.
It’s going to be a tough game, but not impossible to win. You’re Kentucky, nothing should scare you, even if the challenge is extremely difficult. Go into Auburn and be competitive and see what happens on the final stretch.
See you at 6:00 PM.